Nacionalinio vystymosi scenarijų valdymas
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The dissertation “National development scenario management” aims to create a long-term development management model that would operate in the conditions of constant change. To achieve this goal, a new dynamic foresight approach has been developed: it emphasizes multidirectional, scenario-based vision of the future, its repeated and regular application and quantitative methods. Within the framework of this approach, a national development scenario management model has been developed, which combines future trends, the state’s long-term goals and the national development trajectory. The result of the model is an identified type of development scenario of the researched object. After applying the model to the Lithuanian national development until 2030, it was established that Lithuanian public sector and economy are between the transformation and discipline scenarios, society is in the discipline scenario, but has signs from a collapse scenario. Future trends show that development areas of Lithuania that are in a collapse scenario in future will face even greater pressure (demography, need for new skills, social exclusion). Model is universal and can be applied in the national development management of other countries.