Komercinių bankų nuosavo kapitalo pelningumo prognozavimas signalizavimo teorijos kontekste taikant išankstinius rodiklius
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The scientific problem of dissertation: which and how leading economic indicators can be included to structure of ratios helping to forecast return on equity in commercial banks and induce signals about the target return on equity. In the dissertation it was outlined theoretical concepts of signalling and forecasting return on equity in commercial banks from view of factor system complexity of forecasting return on equity, ascertained opportunities of using leading economic indicators and, using them, developed return on equity forecasting and signal inducing model in commercial banks. Besides, it was assessed model for return on equity forecasting and signal inducing, applying leading economic indicators in Baltic commercial banks and patronizing them Scandinavian banks, identified application opportunities and limitations. The results of the dissertation show that forecasting return on equity in commercial banks, applying leading economic indicators together with bank specific, coinciding and lagging economic indicators, improves accuracy of forecasting and inducing signals about target return on equity, in comparison to forecasting and inducing signals about target return on equity not applying leading economic indicators. The capability to induce and communicate more accurate signals on return on equity helps commercials banks to improve it‘s reputation in front of internal and external receivers of such signals.