Nusikalstamumo tendencijos ir jo prevencijos perspektyvos Lietuvoje (kriminologinis prognostinis aspektas).
On the basis of the material of long-term criminological research, accumulated at the Law Institute, and experience gained, attempts are made to evaluate comprehensively the current crime situation in Lithuania, to systematize the main social factors, determining its quantitative and qualitative changes and simultaneously to form scientific prerequisites and possibilities to predict the tendencies of development of that phenomenon in the following years (at the turn of the 20th and 21st centuries). The level and character of crime in Lithuania do not differ in the essence from the coiresponding indicators of criminality in other East European post-occupational countries, and in some aspects these indicators are even lower. Criminality is predetermined by a social, demographic, economic, legal, political, cultural, and moral situation of the country. The state and character of the future crime will depend on the development of the above mentioned situation. The crime of an open.(market economy) society is not only a national problem, it is also affected by external (international) factors and relations. The crime control system in Lithuania should be organized taking this into consideration as well as preparing its new concept. The article provides a system of scientific proposals which could be prospective in forming and implementing the effective state policy in the sphere of crime control. The strategic trend of that policy instead of making the laws and punishment stricter, should eliminate in complex way social causes and conditions of criminality, i.e., crime prevention, oriented first of all to social groups of people mostly not adapted to new conditions of market society and people, living under the poverty line, young people who do not study and do not work, dysfunctional families and children who are being raised in them, young people who do not study and do not work, solution of inhabitants employment problems as well as problems of mode of life and morals. Crime prevention should become an integral part of social, economical, legal and cultural policy of the state and local governments institutions. It is proposed to reform in essence also the system of special crime prevention measures and institutions, decreasing their repressive and increasing positive influence by humanising and socialising of this system. Also other scientific (criminological) preconditions and practical possibilities of crime prevention in Lithuania and increase of its effectiveness are discussed paying attention not only to present but also prospective purposes and goals of this problem’s solution.
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