Recidyvinio nusikalstamumo raida 1999-2000 metais.

Abstract

The present paper analyses recurrent crime and makes the forecasts of its development. To make the forecasts extrapolation and expert estimation methods are applied in this work. Extrapolation method lays preliminary forecasts while expert estimation method develops them more precisely. Expert estimation method analyses the factors that have the biggest influence on recurrent crime. In 1999, recurrent crime should increase by 5 % while in 2000 this increase should fall down. Cases of multiple recidivism are likely to occur more frequently. Recurrent crime mostly increases because of the persons who have not finalized their term of punishment. If penitentiary system is not reformed soon, this tendency could increase by an even larger scale in the future.