Nusikalstamumo dinamikos monitoringas.
Criminality is a highly dynamic social phenomenon. Constant variations in its level are one of its most characteristic traits. The main problem with these variations is that some of them are not dangerous, which means that they do not bring any longer increase in criminality. These harmless short increases in the level of criminality are immediately followed by decreases, criminality "tides" are followed by its "ebbs". All this is quite normal dynamic. However, some increases of criminality are not so harmless - they are forerunners and starting points of the following dangerous trends in criminality. It is very important to discover these dangerous trends in time. It is important for many reasons. If it is known that a trend is dangerous then we can try to prevent it. Measures can be taken to stop or reduce it. Institutions of criminal justice can be warned. Also public and mass-media can be informed in time. The monitoring of criminality is a method supposed to recognize such dangerous trends. It is possible to distinct these two kinds of variations and to recognize the most dangerous one. The method is developed on the bases of the study of patterns in dynamic in criminality in Lithuania from 1961- 2003. This provided an opportunity to precise limits within which variations in criminality are its normal oscillations. It was shown that greater changes in criminality that go out off these limits are highly probable to start longer trends in criminality. Long-time trends of criminality (from 1961 until 2003) have been investigated. The limits of normal oscillations have been delineated. Stability of these limits has been proved using special statistical tools. It is shown the necessity of a special agency monitoring criminality. Also we shown the necessity of using the developed method to recognize dangerous changes in criminality. Prospects of further investigations in criminality monitoring are discussed.
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